- Home
- Resources
- Market Insights
The Latest Market Insights
Equity Total Returns
There is a well-known adage in investing: “Sell in May and go away.” However, that advice did not hold true this year. In fact, May 2025 turned out to be the best-performing May for the S&P 500 in the past 35 years. It also ranks among the top four months for total returns over the last five years. Our team, along with many other financial advisors, often emphasizes that it is extremely difficult to predict short-term market movements. This year’s results provide a clear example of why staying invested—focusing on time in the market rather than attempting to time the market—is generally a more effective strategy for long-term success. Trying to anticipate the best moments to buy or sell can lead to missed opportunities, while maintaining a consistent investment approach allows you to benefit from periods of strong performance like we saw this May.
One-Month Percent Page
Multiple factors contributed to the recent market rally. The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rate policy, choosing to keep rates steady in response to ongoing economic growth, even as the pace of that growth moderated and inflation remained persistent. Throughout the month, there were ongoing developments related to tariffs, with announcements of new tariffs followed by pauses or adjustments. Overall, the tone surrounding trade negotiations was generally positive, with indications that progress was being made that could benefit the U.S. economy. Inflation edged slightly lower during this period, bringing it closer to the Federal Open Market Committee’s target rate. However, there is an expectation that inflation may rise again in the coming months as the impact of tariffs works its way through the economy.
Unemployment Rate
On the employment front, the unemployment rate held steady, but job growth showed signs of slowing, reflecting a labor market that remains stable yet is beginning to cool. These combined factors—steady monetary policy, positive trade developments, moderating inflation, and a resilient but softening job market—helped support investor confidence and contributed to the market’s strong performance.
The U.S. dollar continued to weaken against the currencies of major trading partners, largely as a result of ongoing tariff discussions and related uncertainty. This decline in the dollar, combined with strong performance in international equity markets, contributed to improved returns for globally diversified portfolios. For several years, foreign markets have been trading at relatively lower valuations compared to U.S. markets, which have been buoyed by high-performing, technology-focused stocks and elevated valuations.
While our strategic overweight to foreign equities created a temporary drag on performance during periods when U.S. markets outpaced international markets, this approach is now proving beneficial. Clients who maintained exposure to global markets are seeing the rewards of their patience, as the combination of a weaker dollar and a rebound in foreign stocks has resulted in stronger relative returns. This underscores the value of diversification and a long-term investment perspective, especially as market leadership shifts and opportunities emerge outside the U.S.
Fixed Income Total Returns
In the fixed income markets, we have observed a narrowing of spreads for lower-quality bonds, indicating that the difference in yield between these and higher-quality bonds has decreased. At the same time, overall demand for yield has increased, as investors seek higher returns in a shifting interest rate environment.
This trend has become even more pronounced with the recent progress of President Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” in Congress. Market participants are anticipating that this legislation could significantly increase the federal deficit, prompting bond investors to demand higher yields as compensation for the perceived rise in fiscal risk. The ongoing discussions around the bill have heightened concerns about long-term government spending and the sustainability of fiscal policy.
Although there have been suggestions that some of the new spending could be offset by reductions in what has been described as “wasteful” expenditures—previously identified and curtailed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—current analyses indicate that these offsets may not be sufficient to fully balance the additional costs. Ultimately, while there is no definitive threshold for when government spending becomes unsustainable, it is clear that fiscal discipline will need to be addressed to maintain confidence in the bond markets and ensure long-term economic stability.
Although there are some potential challenges and areas of unpredictability that warrant attention, our outlook for the market remains optimistic. We believe that ongoing vigilance and a disciplined investment approach are essential to navigating any potential obstacles. Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio will continue to be a key factor in managing risk and positioning for long-term growth, allowing our portfolios to adapt to changing market conditions while working toward our clients’ financial goals.
Why Stay Informed?
Staying informed about the latest economic trends and market movements is essential for making informed investment decisions. At Croghan Colonial Bank, we provide you with the insights you need to navigate these changes and optimize your investment strategy.
Important Legal Disclosures
*Investment products and services may lose value, are not a deposit, are not guaranteed by any financial institution, and are not FDIC insured or insured by any government agency.