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Five in Five
Welcome to Five in Five, a monthly publication from the Investment Team at BTC Capital Management. Each month we share graphs around five topics that illustrate the current state of the markets, with brief commentary that can be absorbed in five minutes or less. We hope you find this high-level commentary to be beneficial and complementary to Weekly Insight and Investment Insight.
July 2025
This month’s Five in Five covers the following topics:
- Treasury Yields
- Global Bonds
- Consumer Sector Reaction to Tariffs
- Technology Dominates Recovery Since Recent Market Bottom
- U.S. Dollar Recovers in July

Treasury Yields
- 2-year yields dropped 27 basis points on weaker-than-expected jobs report.
- The spread between the 30-year Treasury and the 2-year Treasury hit a three-and-a-half-year high.
- The market is now pricing in a 90% chance of a cut at the September Federal Open Marketing Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg

Global Bonds
- The Global Aggregate Bond Index hit its lowest spread since 2007 (30 bps).
- This index includes corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
- The U.S. is within 2 basis points of an 18-year low.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg

Consumer Sector Reaction to Tariffs
- Since the potential new tariffs were announced in April, many companies announced they face uncertainty
regarding impact on revenue and earnings. As such, several companies have withdrawn their forward-looking
guidance. - The Consumer and Automotive & Transportation sectors have seen the most companies withdraw or cut guidance
as imports constitute a significant factor in those two sectors. - Price hikes have been predominantly focused in the Consumer sectors and the Industrial/Manufacturing sectors,
whereas companies in other sectors have been able to weather the storm and absorb the higher input costs,
rather than pass them on to consumers.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, LSEG

Technology Dominates Recovery Since Recent Market Bottom
- Since the market bottom on April 8, the MSCI USA Large Cap Index has rebounded nearly 30% (+28.4%).
- All sectors have seen positive gains except for the Health Care sector.
- Technology related stocks have led the rally as investors have adopted a “risk-on” mentality and have rotated to
stocks where significant earnings growth is expected. The index is currently trading at 22.8X Next Twelve Months
price-to-earnings (NTM P/E) ratio, which is at the very high end of its historic range.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, FactSet

U.S. Dollar Recovers in July
- The U.S. dollar has fallen in value this year versus most other global currencies, as displayed above via the U.S. Dollar Index.
- The U.S. dollar has recovered somewhat since July as recent releases of positive economic data has stoked hopes of the Federal
Reserve cutting rates. The U.S. dollar’s rally fizzled out slightly last week with the weaker-than-expected job numbers. - Investors continue to monitor not only economic releases but also global flows into investment markets which spur higher demand for
local currencies.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, FactSet
Important Disclosures
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg, LSEG, FactSet
The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but BTC Capital Management and its
affiliates cannot guarantee accuracy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Performance over periods
exceeding 12 months has been annualized.
This document is intended for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the
purchase or sale of any security. Statements in this report are based on the views of BTC Capital Management and on
information available at the time this report was prepared. Rates are subject to change based on market and/or other
conditions without notice. This commentary contains no investment recommendations, and you should not interpret
any statement in this report as investment, tax, legal, and/or financial planning advice. All investments involve risk,
including the possible loss of principal. Investments are not FDIC insured and may lose value.