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Five in Five
Welcome to Five in Five, a monthly publication from the Investment Team at BTC Capital Management. Each month we share graphs around five topics that illustrate the current state of the markets, with brief commentary that can be absorbed in five minutes or less. We hope you find this high-level commentary to be beneficial and complementary to Weekly Insight and Investment Insight.
November 2025
This month’s Five in Five covers the following topics:
- Private Sector Hirings Trending Lower
- Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates
- Corporate Bonds
- Stock Market Continues to Be Increasingly Concentrated
- Stock Market Volatility Still Relatively Low
Private Sector Hirings Trending Lower
- The latest ADP jobs report for October, which measures hiring in the private industry, came in slightly higher than expected. However, the long-term trend, as evidenced by the above chart, exhibits an overall decline in job creation.
- Sectors such as education, health care, and utilities led the growth in job creation in October.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Factset
Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates
- The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate for the second consecutive meeting.
- Jerome Powell noted that members are becoming more divided about the policy outlook.
- December rate cut odds have slipped from 99% to 72%.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg
Corporate Bonds
- Investment grade automotive bonds historically have the widest spread to Treasuries.
- They currently offer the widest spread among all industry groups.
- Inside 100 basis points of spread to Treasuries is historically a sign to be cautious.
- However, it appears there are 7 lower peaks (outside the two crises events, which had a lower peak in 2020). Spreads have been inside 100 for a considerable duration this cycle.
- This may exemplify an ever-increasing Fed put in financial markets.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg
Stock Market Continues to Be Increasingly Concentrated
- Since the end of August, the S&P 500 has gained almost 5%, however, the equal weighted S&P 500 is essentially flat during the same time period.
- A small handful of stocks have contributed to the index’s appreciation, whereas the majority of stocks in the index have not seen gains.
Source: BTC Capital Management, Factset
Stock Market Volatility Still Relatively Low
- The VIX index, which measures volatility in the stock market, dubbed the “Fear Index”, has been relatively benign of late after spiking in early April after the announcement of the proposed tariffs.
- Despite somewhat lofty P/E valuations in the stock market, the VIX is currently below its five-year average, even though defensive sectors have significantly underperformed of late.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, FactSet
Important Disclosures
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg, FactSet
The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but BTC Capital Management and its affiliates cannot guarantee accuracy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Performance over periods exceeding 12 months has been annualized.
This document is intended for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Statements in this report are based on the views of BTC Capital Management and on information available at the time this report was prepared. Rates are subject to change based on market and/or other conditions without notice. This commentary contains no investment recommendations, and you should not interpret any statement in this report as investment, tax, legal, and/or financial planning advice. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are not FDIC insured and may lose value.