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Five in Five
Welcome to Five in Five, a monthly publication from the Investment Team at BTC Capital Management. Each month we share graphs around five topics that illustrate the current state of the markets, with brief commentary that can be absorbed in five minutes or less. We hope you find this high-level commentary to be beneficial and complementary to Weekly Insight and Investment Insight.
October 2025
This month’s Five in Five covers the following topics:
- Contributors to GDP
- Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates
- Corporate Bonds – Yield Chasing
- Equity Markets Rise in Q3
- The Gold Rush Is On!
Contributors to GDP
- Final reading of Q2 Real GDP was +3.8% compared to -0.6% Q1 (seasonally adjusted annualized rate).
- A major swing factor has been net exports. Q1 importers rushed to land items before tariffs went into effect and reduced
imports in Q2. This also created a large swing of inventories. - Forward forecast reflects a normalization of net exports and inventories with Q3 real GDP estimated at 1.7% and all of 2026 at
1.8%. - Tariffs remain a headwind for consumers and will continue to squeeze corporate profits impacting business investments.
- A slowing economy may help counter inflationary pressure and keep real wages positive which is a cornerstone for positive
real GDP growth in 2026.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates
- The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (9/17/25).
- They targeted two additional cuts in 2025 based on the Summary of Economic Projections.
- Weakening employment is being prioritized over sticky inflation.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg
Corporate Bonds – Yield Chasing
- Longer dated corporate bonds (orange) are well inside 25-year lows.
- The credit curve should be positively sloped, but most participates that buy longer maturity corporate bonds.
- This results in longer dated corporate bonds offering an unattractive risk/reward versus intermediate term
corporate bonds.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg
Equity Markets Rise in Q3
- With improving economic data and somewhat tame inflation metrics, the cut by the Federal Reserve in September
led investors to drive U.S. equities to all-time highs. - As noted in the table above, all style/size categories rose during Q3. Large Cap Growth was up almost 10% as the AI
boom continued. - Small Cap Value gained 11% based on improved earnings forecasts.
Sources: PSC Portfolio Strategy
The Gold Rush Is On!
- The price of gold recently broke through $4,000/oz, reaching an all time high. The graph on the left shows the price during
the last 10 years. - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include various central banks purchasing gold, falling interest rates, and an
increased number of speculative buyers entering the commodity market. - Companies who mine for gold have seen tremendous increases in stock prices YTD thus far. Corporations such as
Newmont, Barrick, and Kinross have seen their share prices at least double so far in 2025.
Sources: BTC Capital Management, FactSet
Important Disclosures
Sources: BTC Capital Management, Bloomberg, FactSet, PSC Portfolio Strategy
The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but BTC Capital Management and its
affiliates cannot guarantee accuracy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Performance over periods
exceeding 12 months has been annualized.
This document is intended for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the
purchase or sale of any security. Statements in this report are based on the views of BTC Capital Management and on
information available at the time this report was prepared. Rates are subject to change based on market and/or other
conditions without notice. This commentary contains no investment recommendations, and you should not interpret
any statement in this report as investment, tax, legal, and/or financial planning advice. All investments involve risk,
including the possible loss of principal. Investments are not FDIC insured and may lose value notice. This commentary contains no investment recommendations, and you should not interpret any statement in this report as investment, tax, legal, and/or financial planning advice. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are not FDIC insured and may lose value.